Eight full rounds have passed, the ninth is underway, and the tenth was drawn up in the dead of night, and so we come to yet another write up. This time, we’ll be diving into which teams are going to definitely/probably/possibly/maybe see some more action in the last parts of Heroes Lounge Season 6, as they will be invited to join in on the Cup or Championship fun. Today, it’s the Cup that gets all the attention, while the Championship will be taken care of later.
Before we start, a few points of order. One, standings are as of the morning that this post goes up. Two, a rough guideline for each team’s chances is that the earlier the paragraph with them in it shows up, the better their chances are. If your team’s in the first paragraph for your division, you’re probably in, but do read the small print, aka the full paragraph, for details. Three, if you’re thinking that there is a lot of uncertainty left for something that is going up at the end of the regular season, you’d be right. Most of Round 9 has not been played yet, and that adds a lot of possibilities to the mix. There are some crazy scenarios still an option because of this, and it’s fairly certain that not all of them have been spotted just yet. Those aren’t strictly within the purview of the post, though, so let’s just jump in.
In news that should surprise nobody who’s kept half an eye out on the division, LE GAG are qualified. How could they not be after winning all of their maps so far. They’ve swept a bloody path through the division, and that does have its effects on the standings below them. Killer Koalas are in a good position as well, as they need only one win from their remaining two matches.
Of the quintet on six wins, Gay Horses and Death by Monkeys are facing off against each other in Round 9, with the winner taking a big step towards qualification, especially considering one of the other teams on six wins, Southgate Boiz, have had the luck of being drawn against LE GAG and the Koalas, which is sure to prove a good challenge for them. At least they, and the Monkeys, have a map win over the Horses and HotsTough, which might just prove essential come the final standings. HotsTough are also up against LE GAG in the last round. 6th Wheel HotS have just one match left to the others’ two, and would also lose a tie-breaker against both Southgate and the Monkeys, making their position a lot more precarious than their rank in the division would imply. They need results to fall a certain way or else they’ll end up as the sixth wheel on the five-wheeled Cup cart.
A chasing pack of hounds on five wins are pretty much entirely reliant on one of the teams above them to make mistakes. Mad Hollows are able to inflict such a mistake upon HotsTough in Round 9 and the Horses in Round 10, while Mumei are looking to make the Koalas’ and the Monkeys’ chances a bit lower. Six wins is looking fairly unlikely to cut it in Division 5, and so Sky High and The Sops really cannot lose in their tête-à-tête, nor can Sky High and.Teamleague Rank 1 in a later round.
Yet Heroes Lounge wouldn’t be Heroes Lounge if everything was predictable. Four spots are up for grabs, and the amount of interconnections in this group is such that one stray result might affect the standings significantly, just from the repercussions of an unexpected loss.
Another division, another unbeaten team. Team Upside haven’t lost a match, letting them qualify without a problem whatsoever.Team Washing Machine aren’t far behind them, and while there are scenarios in which they do not qualify, you might just be better off throwing a dart blindfolded and hope you hit bullseye on the board for something more probable. If this does happen, I take full credit for any jinxing. Budgeville Bush Bashers are the third team in an excellent position. One map puts them in the same scenario as Team Washing Machine, and with two matches to go, that appears to be a very doable prospect. Winning any match, of course, means they’re in the Cup.
Addicted to Champagne need to win once to join the 7-wins-and-16-maps club, but there is only one real reason that the club is even a thing, Oil Refinery and Potatoes007 are facing off against each other in their Round 9 match, forcing one of them to lose valuable points to a direct contender. Oil Refinery and Champagne are going to potentially repeat that scenario in Round 10, or it could be a match that decides basically nothing. Regardless, four teams are guaranteed to get to seven wins or more in this division.
This leaves all of the teams on five wins grasping for straws. N.E.W.T are in the best position, but they need to win twice and even then they are at the mercy of other results. Without going into too much detail, they’re sure to be rooting for Oil Refinery to win twice. Other teams with a lesser map score are firstly reliant on the N.E.W.T vs Champagne result before daring to hope for anything else. If N.E.W.T lose, the best case result would involve ties for the fifth and final spot. Not impossible, but definitely approaching improbable.
Winning 7 matches might not be enough for outright qualification. It sounds strange, but that is what can happen here in Division 4. Map wins are crucial in this hotly contested place, something that Robb probably intended, even if he can’t make use of them himself.
Unlike the other two divisions, nobody has managed to guarantee themselves qualification just yet here. OverShadow and NDMT are in good spots to do so, needing just a single map win in their two matches. This is very doable for two teams who have been fairly dominant in this division so far this season. The winner of IX Kohorta vs EXAS Gaming also have this luxury for their last match. The path for EXAS Gaming if they lose this match might be trickier than they might expect, though: their last round has them face off against NDMT. Even so, if either team can wrangle themselves three maps in the last two rounds, they are qualified as well.
Prime Legion MO-Stars and Team Feuerzeug are the other two teams currently sitting on a playoff spot, and they, too, are masters of their own fate. Win twice and they’re qualified, thanks to map wins securing them a spot over any chasers. Prime Legion’s habit of picking up a map every single series provides them with an additional buffer in the case of only winning once, but it is contingent on only five teams making it to seven wins or more. As it stands, there is a maximum of eight teams capable of making it to that, and a single Prime Legion win drops the amount of teams who can to seven.
If you’re outside of the top six, you’re not in trouble just yet, but your matches are going to have repercussions elsewhere as well. In crucial positions are Senpai’s Groupies, vxo esports and GoInGoCrazy. The latter two are Prime Legion’s opponents in the last two rounds, meaning that their matches are directly responsible for how this division is going to shake out. A double win for any of these teams would see them have a good shot at qualifying, but it is no certainty just yet. Should there be a relevant tie, Senpai’s Groupies have a winning head to head record over vxo esports, but GoInGoCrazy haven’t met either team in the regular season.
There are a whole glut of teams on four wins, and while there are undoubtedly scenarios in which even a team currently on four wins and eight map wins can make it to a tiebreaker, they are horrendously convoluted, requiring winning-the-lottery-odds of actually making it. The one exception to this are Feed & Greed, who are positioned very well to slip into a sixth place if only five teams make it to seven wins. If they win twice, and results are in their favour elsewhere, they can only be tied by Prime Legion if six wins is sufficient for qualification. It’s a long shot for sure, and worse odds than N.E.W.T. up in Division 4, but if any team can make it out of apparently nowhere, they are.
Division 3’s results may vary wildly according to how the last two rounds go; as unlike their Cup brethren, the teams in here mostly avoid the extremely important head-to-heads in the last two rounds. There is no one match that dictates the rest of the season, like Division 4, nor does it have a hyper-dominant team be a potential kingmaker, like Division 5. Everything matters here, and while that is hell for anyone trying to prognosticate, it is also the sign of a very well-balanced group.
That is it for the Cup. Next up will be the Championship, to be released tomorrow. There is some exquisite potential for grief in there, so tune in tomorrow, same time, same Lounge channel!
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